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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 12,9x - 14,3x | 13,6x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 8,8x - 9,8x | 9,3x |
| Fair Value | ₫72.580 - ₫87.748 | ₫80.164 |
| Upside | 4,4% - 26,3% | 15,3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Ho Chi Minh City Infrastructure Investment Joint Stock Company | CII | HOSE:CII |
| Vietnam Construction and Import-Export Joint Stock Corporation | VCG | HOSE:VCG |
| PT Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada Tbk | CMNP | IDX:CMNP |
| Thaiholdings Joint Stock Company | THD | HNX:THD |
| Hai An Transport And Stevedoring Joint Stock Company | HAH | HOSE:HAH |
| CII Bridges and Roads Investment Joint Stock Company | LGC | HOSE:LGC |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| CII | VCG | CMNP | THD | HAH | LGC | ||
| HOSE:CII | HOSE:VCG | IDX:CMNP | HNX:THD | HOSE:HAH | HOSE:LGC | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 27.9% | 11.2% | 11.7% | NM- | 41.3% | 29.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 28.0% | 27.0% | 28.7% | NM- | 24.0% | 43.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 55.5% | 26.3% | 6.1% | -309.8% | 77.9% | 69.7% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 35.6% | 9.5% | 31.4% | 4.5% | 35.6% | 80.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 42.1% | 11.9% | 31.5% | -0.1% | 32.5% | 77.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 66.8% | 14.8% | 24.9% | -0.6% | 37.9% | 83.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 66.8% | 14.8% | 27.5% | -0.6% | 37.9% | 83.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 9.90x | 1.46x | 2.19x | 7.61x | 1.98x | 10.86x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.8x | 9.9x | 8.0x | -1313.5x | 5.2x | 13.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 28.9x | 12.2x | 9.0x | -1296.9x | 7.5x | 19.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -1313.5x | 8.0x | 14.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.0x | 17.8x | 37.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.9x | 13.6x | 14.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 2,086,418 | 2,086,418 | 2,086,418 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 26,921,581 | 28,338,506 | 29,755,432 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (13,793,235) | (13,793,235) | (13,793,235) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 13,128,346 | 14,545,271 | 15,962,196 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 192.9 | 192.9 | 192.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 68,073.74 | 75,420.85 | 82,767.96 | ||||
| FX Rate: VND/VND | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 68,073.74 | 75,420.85 | 82,767.96 | 69,500.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -2.1% | 8.5% | 19.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | CII | VCG | CMNP | THD | HAH | LGC | |
| Enterprise Value | 29,481,101 | 19,134,380 | 15,739,542 | 7,794,000 | 8,168,722 | 27,196,642 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,368,657 | 4,295,784 | 84,747 | 68,305 | 992,390 | 929,597 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,023,929 | 675,373 | 576,229 | 2,532,694 | 173,753 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (23,173,638) | (8,758,976) | (5,521,180) | 0 | (2,330,258) | (12,968,516) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (3,096,931) | (2,955,677) | (1,517,971) | 0 | (694,766) | (1,754,316) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 6,603,118 | 12,390,885 | 9,361,368 | 10,394,999 | 6,309,841 | 13,403,406 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 548.0 | 598.6 | 6,020.2 | 385.0 | 121.3 | 192.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 12,050.00 | 20,700.00 | 1,555.00 | 27,000.00 | 52,000.00 | 69,500.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 12,050.00 | 20,700.00 | 1,555.00 | 27,000.00 | 52,000.00 | 69,500.00 | |
| Trading Currency | VND | VND | IDR | VND | VND | VND | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |